El Niño is ahead: eight things a South Bay homeowner should do now

By Neil Chhabria, Broker and CEO, Chhabria Real Estate Company. Published September 21, 2026.

The National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center has an El Niño Advisory in effect, and its September 10 discussion puts the odds of a very strong event this fall and winter above 90 percent, with a 75 percent chance that the October to December season will be the strongest on record since 1950. Its seasonal outlook, updated September 17, gives the California coast a 50 to 60 percent chance of a wetter than normal December through April, with the probabilities likely to rise in October. None of that guarantees rain in the South Bay; the strong El Niño of 2015-16 was famously dry here. But the last two wet El Niño winters, 1982-83 and 1997-98, delivered more than 150 percent of normal rainfall to California, and the work that protects a house from that kind of winter is the kind that has to be scheduled months ahead, because the roofers, the arborists and the sandbag piles are all gone by the time the first storm is on the radar. Here are the eight things to do now, in the order the lead times demand, with where to get sandbags in each South Bay city and the questions to put to your insurance agent this month.

What does the forecast actually say?

Three things, and the third is the one that matters for a homeowner. First, El Niño is here and strengthening: sea surface temperatures in the eastern equatorial Pacific were more than 3 degrees Celsius above average in August, and the Climate Prediction Center’s September 10 diagnostic discussion gives a greater than 90 percent chance of a very strong event through the winter of 2026-27 and a 75 percent chance of a historic one in the October to December season. Second, a strong El Niño tilts the odds toward a wet winter in Southern California without settling them; the same discussion says the chances of El Niño impacts “are larger, though not guaranteed,” and NOAA’s own review of the 2015-16 winter calls the California forecast that year a bust. Third, the September 17 seasonal outlook already favors above normal precipitation for the southern half of California from October, with the probability near the coast reaching 50 to 60 percent for December through April and the forecasters noting it may be raised in the next update. The practical reading is that the odds of a wet winter are the highest they have been in a decade, the wet months are expected to be January through March rather than the fall, and the preparation window is now.

Where do South Bay residents get sandbags?

Every South Bay city hands out sandbags to its own residents, and Los Angeles County stocks the fire stations that serve the Peninsula. The county’s sandbag dashboard lists every station and yard with a note on whether it has sand, bags or both, and the rules that apply everywhere: you must live in the city where you are collecting, proof of residency is required, and supplies run out during a storm, so call the station first. The county’s storm season runs October 15 to April 15. The city pages are current as of this writing; hours and limits change during a major event.

Empty bags are also sold at the hardware stores, and for a house with a known problem spot the better answer is often to buy fifty and fill them in October rather than to stand in line at the yard in a January storm. The county’s sandbagging instructions cover the part most people get wrong: fill the bags half full, fold the top under, and lay them in a staggered course like bricks, with plastic sheeting under and behind them if the water will stand against a door.

Which properties should have sandbags on hand?

Not most of them, and the ones that should are identifiable from the street. A house at the bottom of a hill, or below the grade of the street in front of it, receives the runoff of everything above it. A lot beside one of the Peninsula’s small ravines or drainage ditches, which are dry for eleven months and then not, is in the path of the twelfth. Oceanfront property on the Strand and the Esplanade and at the foot of the Redondo and Palos Verdes bluffs sees storm surge and king tides; the highest tides of the winter fall in December and January, and a large swell on top of one puts water where it has not been in years. A basement, a crawlspace, a garden-level accessory unit, an underground garage, or a driveway that slopes down to the garage door collects water by design. A ground-level exterior door, a sliding glass door onto a patio at grade, or a foundation vent that sits flush with the ground is an entry point. And a lot on a street where the gutters back up in an ordinary rain, which the neighbors will tell you, does not need a forecast to know what is coming. If the house matches any of those, the sandbags belong in the garage now, and the questions further down about insurance become more than routine.

Are the gutters and downspouts clear?

This is the cheapest item on the list and the one that does the most damage when skipped. A gutter full of jacaranda litter overflows at the first real rain, and the water goes down the fascia, behind the stucco, and into the framing, which is how a $400 cleaning becomes a $40,000 dry rot repair. Hire a gutter service, or have the roofer do it as part of the inspection below, and have it done again after the first storm and the first big wind. Then walk the downspouts: each one should discharge onto a splash block or into a drain line that carries the water away from the foundation, not into the planter against the house. A downspout that ends at the slab is a slow leak into the crawlspace every time it rains.

Do the yard drains work?

Walk the property with a hose on a dry day and find every drain: the area drains in the lawn and the planters, the channel drain across the driveway, the catch basin at the low corner of the yard. Pull the grates and clear them of dirt, leaves and roots, then run water into each one and see where it comes out. Many South Bay yard drains were installed decades ago and have never been checked; the ones that are silted solid or crushed by a tree root will be found by the first storm if not by you. Your landscaper will usually add this to a regular visit for a modest charge, and it is the best money on this list. On a hillside lot, the drains and the slope are a single system: the county’s Ready LA County guidance on flooding and mudflow is worth a read, and if the slope behind the house shows new cracks, bare spots or a lean in the fence, that is a call to a geotechnical engineer, not a landscaper.

Has a roofer been up there?

Schedule the roof inspection before a leak, because after one there is no roofer to be had; the same storm that finds your weak spot finds a thousand others. Ask for a written report on the flashings around chimneys, skylights and vents, the seals and caps on the ridges and penetrations, missing or slipped tiles, and any cracked or lifted shingles. A flat or low-slope roof, which is most of the Sand Section and much of the modern Peninsula, should be checked for pooling: standing water a day after the last rain means a drain is blocked or the roof has sagged, and either one will end as a leak. Use a roofing contractor licensed by the state; in California any job over $1,000 in labor and materials requires a licensed contractor, and the Contractors State License Board’s license check takes a minute and shows complaints. Keep the report; it is the kind of document that is worth money when you sell.

Are the windows and sills sealed?

Walk the exterior and look at every window where the frame meets the siding, stucco or trim. Cracked, peeling or missing caulk is the usual entry for wind-driven rain, and a tube of exterior sealant on a dry afternoon closes it. Check the bottom track of the sliding windows and doors for the small rectangular slots called weep holes, which drain the track to the outside; when they are clogged with dirt and dead bugs the track fills and the water comes in over the sill. Clear them with a pick or a vacuum. Open each window and inspect the weatherstripping, which should be resilient rather than flattened, cracked or missing. On older wood windows check the glazing putty that holds the panes, which chips and lets water into the sash when it fails. On double-pane windows, fog or condensation between the panes means the seal has failed, which is not a leak but is a replacement, and the winter is a poor time to discover how many of them there are.

Has an arborist walked the trees?

Downed trees are the storm damage that hurts people. Saturated ground and a strong wind bring down trees that looked fine in September, and the ones that go are usually the ones with a defect a professional would have seen: a weak crotch, a rotted limb, roots lifting the hardscape, a lean that has increased. Have a tree service with a certified arborist on staff walk the property and give you a trimming and removal plan; the International Society of Arboriculture keeps a directory that verifies credentials, and tree work over $1,000 requires a state-licensed contractor, now under the CSLB’s C-49 Tree and Palm classification. Schedule it now: after a storm the tree companies are booked for months on cleanup, and the tree that should have come down in October is the one that comes down on the garage in February. If the tree is on the parkway strip it belongs to the city, and the call goes to public works.

Does the sump pump work?

If the house has a basement, a below-grade garage or a low point that relies on a pump to move storm water, have a plumber test it before the flood, not after. The test is simple: fill the pit, watch the float rise, confirm the pump runs and the discharge line carries the water away from the house rather than back into the same soil. Ask about a battery backup, because the power fails in the same storms that fill the pit, and about a water alarm, which costs less than dinner. In the two-on-a-lot and three-on-a-lot developments across Redondo and Torrance, the pump for a shared subterranean garage is usually a common-area item that the association’s dues pay for; if nobody on the board knows when it was last serviced, that is the answer. Sometimes the fix is electrical rather than mechanical, and an electrician has to come before the plumber can finish. Get ahead of both.

What should you ask your insurance agent this month?

The item on the list that most owners have not done, and the one with the longest lead time. Two facts frame the conversation. A standard homeowners policy does not cover flood, which the National Flood Insurance Program defines as rising water, the overflow of tidal or inland water, or the unusual and rapid accumulation or runoff of surface water; that coverage is a separate policy, either from the federal NFIP or a private flood insurer. And a new NFIP policy takes effect 30 days after purchase, with an exception when it is bought with a new or refinanced mortgage, so a policy bought when the storm is on the news does not cover that storm. Put these six questions to your agent, and get the answers in writing.

Insurance is your agent’s field, not ours, and the answers depend on your policy, your carrier and your address; the point of the questions is to have the conversation in September rather than in January. If your agent cannot answer them, that is an answer too.

What does this have to do with selling the house?

More than it seems. When a house sells in California the seller completes a Transfer Disclosure Statement, which asks about flooding, drainage and grading problems, and a Natural Hazard Disclosure, which states whether the property sits in a FEMA Special Flood Hazard Area. Water that came in during a past storm has to be disclosed, and a buyer’s inspector will find the stain even when the seller has forgotten it. The owner who does this list now is doing two things for a future sale: preventing the intrusion that would have to be disclosed, and building the file of dated reports and invoices, the roof inspection, the arborist’s plan, the drain cleaning, that turns a buyer’s question into a settled one. We described how those disclosures work, and what a buyer’s inspection rights are, in our piece on fixer terminology. A house that has been through a wet winter with a documented record and no water inside is worth more than one that has not, and the difference is largest at the top of the market, where the buyer’s inspector is the most thorough.

If you need a referral for any of the trades above, a roofer, an arborist, a drainage contractor, a plumber, an insurance broker who writes private flood and difference in conditions coverage, we have worked with the best of them for forty years and are glad to make the introduction; send Neil a note. And if you own on the Peninsula, our reporting on the city’s ordinances and the Peninsula’s neighborhoods is the background for the slope questions that a wet winter raises.

Sources

• NOAA Climate Prediction Center: ENSO Diagnostic Discussion (September 10, 2026) and Prognostic Discussion for Long-Lead Seasonal Outlooks (September 17, 2026); NOAA Climate.gov, How does El Niño influence winter precipitation over the United States?; Scripps Institution of Oceanography, Why was the 2015-16 El Niño so dry?
• Los Angeles County Public Works, sandbag locations dashboard; Los Angeles County Fire Department, Sandbagging Instructions; Ready LA County, flooding
• City sandbag pages: Manhattan Beach; Hermosa Beach; Redondo Beach; Torrance; El Segundo; Rancho Palos Verdes; Rolling Hills Estates; Rolling Hills
• FEMA National Flood Insurance Program: buying a policy (limits and waiting period) and definitions (flood and mudflow); FEMA Flood Map Service Center; California Department of Insurance, flood facts; Insurance Information Institute, which disasters are covered and insurance for landslides and mudflow (an industry association)
• Contractors State License Board: $1,000 licensing threshold (effective January 1, 2025); license check; C-49 Tree and Palm Contractor; International Society of Arboriculture, Find an Arborist
• California Civil Code section 1102.6 (Transfer Disclosure Statement) and section 1103.2 (Natural Hazard Disclosure Statement)

Written September 21, 2026. Forecasts, sandbag hours and city limits are as published on the dates shown and change during a storm season; confirm with the city or station before you go. This article is general real estate information, not insurance, tax, legal, lending or investment advice; insurance questions belong with your own agent or broker.

The eight-card version of this checklist is on our Instagram, @chhabria.realestate, if you want it on your phone.

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