Updated October 6, 2026
Added October 6, 2026, 11:15 AM Pacific: escrow and listing counts since the September 16 rate increase, and questions to bring to a lender before December 8.
T-minus 3 days and counting. On Friday, October 9, 2026, another 7 percent of the SpaceX shares held back since the June IPO becomes eligible to sell. That lifts the total released from 41 percent to 48 percent. In the beach cities closest to the company’s Hawthorne campus, 67 single family homes were for sale on October 2.
This is the follow-up to When Smart Moves Skyrocket, our June 14 post on the largest IPO on record. That post said we would come back with the lock-up schedule step by step and the South Bay’s own numbers beside it. Both are below.
What unlocks on October 9?
Up to 7 percent of the shares covered by SpaceX’s early-release schedule, the fourth of five fixed steps. It follows the 20 percent released on August 6 and three 7 percent steps on August 20, September 9 and September 24. After Friday, 52 percent remains, and the largest single piece is the 28 percent tied to third-quarter earnings.
The steps come from the lock-up section of SpaceX’s registration statement, filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission. The dates are our own count from the June 11, 2026 prospectus date.
| Step in the prospectus | Share released | Date | Status on October 6 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Second full trading day after the first earnings report | Up to 20 percent | Thursday, August 6, 2026 | Released |
| Same window, only if the stock closed at least 30 percent above the offering price on 5 of the prior 10 trading days | An additional 10 percent | Thursday, August 6, 2026 | Not triggered |
| Day 70 | 7 percent | Thursday, August 20, 2026 | Released |
| Day 90 | 7 percent | Wednesday, September 9, 2026 | Released |
| Day 105 | 7 percent | Thursday, September 24, 2026 | Released |
| Day 120 | 7 percent | Friday, October 9, 2026 | Ahead |
| Day 135 | 7 percent | Saturday, October 24, 2026 | Ahead |
| Second full trading day after third-quarter earnings | 28 percent | Not yet announced | Ahead |
| Day 180 | The remainder | Tuesday, December 8, 2026 | Ahead |
SpaceX set August 4 for its first earnings report, CNBC reported on July 21. The results came out that Tuesday, which opened the first window two trading days later. The conditional 10 percent needed the stock at $175.50 or higher, and it did not happen: the shares were trading below the $135 offering price that week, according to The Motley Fool. October 24 is a Saturday, so those shares can first trade on Monday, October 26. Benzinga reports third-quarter earnings are expected in early November.
Published calendars differ by a day or two on the fixed dates, and Benzinga lists October 7 for the next one. Elon Musk is not part of the early releases. Each holder’s own agreement and the company’s trading rules decide what that person can sell and when, so anyone holding the stock should confirm dates there.
What does that look like in dollars?
Take a holder with $1 million of stock at the $135 offering price. Benzinga put the shares at $158.96 in its October 3 report, about 18 percent higher, which makes that holding worth about $1.18 million. The 41 percent released so far comes to about $483,000 before taxes. Friday’s step brings it to about $565,000, and October 26 to about $648,000.
Set that against a purchase. Twenty percent down on a $2.5 million house is $500,000. At this price, a South Bay buyer in that position crosses the down payment on Friday. In early August, with the stock under $135, the first 20 percent was worth less than $200,000. The share price moves every one of these figures, in both directions.
Where is the market right now?
In the beach cities closest to Hawthorne, there were 67 single family homes for sale on October 2, 2026: 45 in Manhattan Beach, 14 in Hermosa Beach and 8 in El Segundo. Each of those markets has less than two months of supply. The figures are from our own CRMLS pull, and they line up with the “few dozen available homes” in the June 14 text.
| Market | For sale, October 2 | Closed, January to September 2026 (2025) | Months of supply | Median days on market, 2026 (2025) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manhattan Beach | 45 | 217 (206) | 1.9 | 9 (10) |
| Hermosa Beach | 14 | 76 (72) | 1.7 | 11.5 (25) |
| El Segundo | 8 | 58 (41) | 1.2 | 14 (8) |
| Redondo Beach | 32 | 213 (220) | 1.4 | 12 (12.5) |
Months of supply is one division. Manhattan Beach closed 217 houses in nine months, about 24 a month, and 45 are for sale, so everything listed would sell in a little under two months if nothing new came on. Stats presented here represent the city or area as a whole, not any one individual property.
What does it mean if you own a home here?
Very little is competing with you. Across Manhattan Beach, Hermosa Beach and El Segundo there are 67 single family homes for sale, and 59 percent of the eligible SpaceX shares had not yet been released when those homes were counted. The steps still ahead are October 9, October 26, the 28 percent after third-quarter earnings, and December 8.
What does it mean if you are buying?
The same calendar tells you when other buyers may gain purchasing power: Friday, then October 26, the days after third-quarter earnings, and December 8. A purchase negotiated before those dates is negotiated ahead of them. Our buying guide covers the steps from pre-approval to closing.
One limit on all of this. These counts cover every sale in each city. They do not record a buyer’s employer or where the money came from, so no part of them can be assigned to SpaceX stock. El Segundo closed 58 houses through September against 41 a year earlier, and the record does not say why.
What has the market done since the September 16 rate increase?
Neither a surge nor a stall shows yet. In Manhattan Beach, Hermosa Beach and El Segundo, 30 single family homes went into escrow in the 20 days after the Federal Reserve’s September 16 rate increase, against 28 in the 20 days before. 67 homes are for sale today, the same count as October 2.
We pulled these counts from CRMLS on the morning of October 6, 2026. Our week-one reading of the rate increase said one week could not show how buyers would respond. This is the 20-day reading for the beach cities closest to Hawthorne.
| 20-day window | New escrows | New listings |
|---|---|---|
| September 16 to October 5, 2026 (after the rate increase) | 30 | 25 |
| August 27 to September 15, 2026 (before) | 28 | 32 |
| September 16 to October 5, 2025 | 27 | 23 |
| August 27 to September 15, 2025 | 18 | 30 |
Counts this small move by five or six from one period to the next on chance alone, so 30 against 28 is no change. The same 20 days last year produced 27.
The homes still for sale have waited longer. The 67 active listings have been on the market a median 50 days, and 26 of them have lowered their price at least once. Half of the Manhattan Beach homes that sold through September did so in 9 days or less, so a home still listed after 50 days has waited more than five times as long as the typical sale.
If you own a home here, in Neil’s experience price is what separates those two groups. If you are buying, the homes that have waited are where a South Bay buyer has room to negotiate.
These counts have three limits. A contract signed in late September began with showings weeks earlier, so little of the after count could have been caused by the rate increase. The 2025 counts hold only escrows that went on to close, while the 2026 counts include escrows still open, and a few of those will fall out. And Matrix marks a listing as reduced without dating the cut, so we cannot say how many of the 26 came after September 16. We will run the same comparison again after October 26.
What kind of lender should a SpaceX shareholder talk to before December 8?
A lender that underwrites equity compensation: a private bank, or a jumbo lender that keeps the loan in its own portfolio. December 8 is 63 days from October 6. A shareholder who wants a house before then has the released shares to work with, 41 percent today and 48 percent after Friday.
The registration statement says locked shares are restricted from pledging as well as from sale, under agreements that vary by holder. So a loan against stock can generally lean only on shares already released, and each holder’s own agreement sets the exact terms.
Questions to bring to that conversation:
- Will you count my released shares as an asset, and at what discount to the market price?
- Do you lend against a stock portfolio, and what happens to the loan if the share price falls?
- How do you treat stock that vested this year when you measure income?
- Can you close on the seller’s timeline?
The June 14 post, When Smart Moves Skyrocket, covers the choice between selling shares and borrowing against them, and how a lender reads new stock. This section is general information. The lending and tax decisions belong with your own banker and CPA.
Two corrections to the June 14 post
First, the schedule. “Most of the access arriving around the six-month mark” understated how early the shares come free: 55 percent by October 26, and 83 percent once third-quarter earnings are out. Second, the headquarters. SpaceX’s registration statement gives its principal executive offices as Starbase, Texas. Hawthorne is the company’s Southern California campus, about 580,000 square feet, and the City of Hawthorne lists SpaceX as its largest employer at more than 6,000 people, CoStar reported on June 11. The stock trades on the Nasdaq, and the South Bay link is the Hawthorne campus and its jobs.
Where is the June 14 playbook?
The seller and buyer checklists, the sell-or-borrow question, the lender’s view of new stock and the four markets to watch next are all in the June 14 post, When Smart Moves Skyrocket. Nothing in the schedule above changes them. The dates here tell an owner or a buyer when each step on those checklists comes due.
What we report next
The October 20 market report will carry these same cities with share of original asking price, which is not in this pull. After third-quarter earnings and again after December 8, we will rerun the counts above and set them beside this table. Current figures for each city are on Market Insights. Buying, selling, or still working out whether the South Bay is where to set down roots? Send Neil a note.
Sources
- Space Exploration Technologies Corp., Form S-1 registration statement, U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, filed May 20, 2026. Lock-up section read October 5 and October 6, 2026.
- CNBC, SpaceX raising $75 billion in record-setting IPO as Nasdaq debut awaits, June 11, 2026; SpaceX IPO takeaways, June 12, 2026; SpaceX snaps 7-day losing streak, sets earnings date that triggers first big share unlock, July 21, 2026.
- Morningstar, How SpaceX’s Tiered Lockup Aims to Help Post-IPO Trading, by Michael Bodley, May 29, 2026.
- The Motley Fool via Yahoo Finance, SpaceX’s Lockup Expires on Aug. 6, by Keith Speights, August 5, 2026.
- Benzinga, SpaceX Stock Crosses Key Level Amid Launch Milestones as Lockup Expirations Near, October 3, 2026.
- CoStar News, Inside the real estate supporting SpaceX’s growth ambitions, June 11, 2026.
- Housing figures: Chhabria Real Estate Company’s own CRMLS Matrix pull of October 2, 2026. Single family residences; closed sales January 1 to September 30 of 2026 and 2025; active listings as of the afternoon of October 2. Months of supply is active listings divided by the average monthly closings over those nine months.
- Housing counts since September 16: Chhabria Real Estate Company’s own CRMLS Matrix pull of October 6, 2026, late morning. Single family residences in Manhattan Beach, Hermosa Beach and El Segundo. New escrows are listings whose purchase contract date falls in the window and whose status is Active Under Contract, Pending or Closed. New listings are counted by listing contract date. Days on market and price reductions are read from the active listings on that date.
We do our very best to supply facts drawn from official sources so that the information you find here is reliable and accurate. If we find conflicting information, we report on all of it. This article is general real estate and market information. It is not real estate, tax, lending, financial or investment advice, and it is not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security or to buy, sell, list or price any property. Lock-up terms are set by the prospectus and by each holder’s own agreements, and the calendar dates here are our own count. Confirm any date and any financing or tax decision with your own banker, CPA and advisers before relying on it. Chhabria Real Estate Company has no affiliation with SpaceX. Chhabria Real Estate Company, DRE 01821437.
